日本右翼正在将日本经济拖入泥潭

\u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e这两天，日本共同社公布了一项调查：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 8px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e｜\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 122, 170)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e｜\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e一半以上的受访者认为，\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e高市早苗关于台湾问题的错误行径会对日本经济产生负面影响\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 8px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e｜\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 122, 170)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e｜\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e六成多的受访者对高市早苗\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e此前推出的大规模财政刺激政策感到担忧。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e高市早苗内阁的支持率也随之下跌。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e这意味着，高市早苗政府企图通过对外“强硬”来转移日本国内经济压力的方式，并没有奏效，反而\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 122, 170)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e不断暴露了日本经济内部的结构性问题\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e借此，谭主也想谈谈，高市早苗政府试图回避、却无法回避的日本经济现实。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 20px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(56, 56, 56)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e 💡 \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(56, 56, 56)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e偷鸡不成，先蚀把米\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e去年，日本实际国内生产总值（\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_0--\u003eGDP\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_0--\u003e）增速只有0.1%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e为了提振经济，高市早苗政府在今年上台之后，推出了总额高达21.3万亿日元的扩张性财政政策。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e政策宣布之后，市场已经做出反应：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e日本10年期国债收益率飙升到26年来最高，20年期国债收益率飙升到27年来最高，30年期国债收益率创下历史新高。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e一般来说，推出扩张性财政政策，会带来国债收益率的上涨。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e原因很简单，政府需要发行更多国债来融资，这直接增加了债券市场的供给，在需求没有大幅度增加的情况下，债券的价格会下跌，相应地，收益率就会上升。\u003c!--AI_AD_1000--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e此外，债上加债，也会加重投资者对政府偿债能力的担忧，他们会要求更高的风险溢价。这种风险溢价的上升会直接反映在债券收益率上，自然会导致预期收益率上升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e但像日本这样上升这么多的，确实不多见。原因主要有两个。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 122, 170)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e一是日本的债务问题原本就已经很严重了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e日本政府总债务已经超过日本GDP的230%，是发达国家里最高的一档。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e按常理判断，日本此时更需要控制开支、稳住债市预期，而不是继续扩大财政支出。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e最初，日本财务省提出的补充预算规模大约只是14万亿日元。日本自民党高层一向主张不能过度扩张财政政策，人们对日本债务扩张的担忧并不高。但高市早苗却任命了一批主张依靠财政扩张带动增长的经济学家进入日本内阁府经济财政咨询会议。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e随着这些“积极财政”力量的声音增强，再叠加高市早苗希望展示自己能“推动经济增长”的政治考量，财政预算的规模最终被推到21万亿日元以上。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e这样带来的隐患是什么呢？还得结合日本债市的结构性变化来看。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e日本国债有一个很大的特点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e日本央行是日本国债的最大持有者，占比超过一半。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e相比之下，美联储大约只持有\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e美国国债\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e的13%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e这和日本此前推行的政策相关——自2013年以来，为摆脱通缩，日本央行大量增发货币、大规模买入国债，在2014年成为了日债的最大持有者。当时，日本央行持有国债占比为20.1%。此后，日本央行的占比一路上升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e但从去年开始，日债的需求结构正在发生变化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e去年年中，日本央行宣布要启动量化紧缩政策，开始减少其持有的国债。这向市场传递的一个信号是，日本央行不再会无限量购买日本国债。到了今年第二季度，日本国内机构的购债需求也出现了大幅下降。\u003c!--AI_AD_1001--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e这意味着，日本债市对外部资金的依赖正在上升，而外国投资者对风险极为敏感，一旦开始质疑日本政府的偿债能力，就会选择抛售日债，增加了发生系统性风险的概率。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e与此同时，日本的银行、保险公司和养老金长期重仓国债，债券价格下跌会迅速放大其账面损失。国际货币基金组织也曾指出，这种风险一旦累积，可能触发金融机构层面的不稳定。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e金融机构的这种压力最终又会传导到实体经济，抬升企业和家庭的借贷成本，在本就脆弱的增长环境中进一步削弱投资和消费。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e高市早苗想着尽快在经济上“表现”一下，结果却是先把日本债市推向了风险。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 20px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(56, 56, 56)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e 💡 \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(56, 56, 56)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e掩耳盗铃，铤而走险\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e高市早苗这份财政政策\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 122, 170)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e不仅规模不合理，推出时机也不合理。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e当前，日本正经历一轮快速的物价上涨。根据最新公布的数据，日本居民核心消费价格指数（CPI）已连续51个月上涨，超2万种食品涨价。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e在这种背景下，常规的应对逻辑本应是通过紧缩的货币和财政政策压低总需求，从而给通胀降温。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e而高市早苗力推的财政政策，却“反其道而行之”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e她给出的解释是，日本当前的通胀主要是输入性通胀，靠紧缩的货币政策能够产生的抑制效果有限。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e事实真的如此吗？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e日本央行用实际行动作了表态——将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%的水平。日本政策利率由此达到30年来最高水平。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e并不是所有人都配合高市早苗的“掩耳盗铃”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e事实上，前年日本的通胀确实还有“输入性”的因素——受地缘政治影响，原油等大宗商品价格上涨，对于日本这样一个能源、粮食以及原材料都高度依赖进口的国家来说，国内物价自然会被推高。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e但2025年大宗商品价格在震荡中下跌，日本通胀仍然居高不下，\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 122, 170)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e问题显然更多来自国内。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; visibility: visible; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e高市早苗政府不可能看不到这一变化，但她选择的路径是通过发钱等扩张性财政政策，让公众在短期内感觉负担没有明显上升，仿佛购买力得以维持。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e这本质上还是在“掩耳盗铃”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; visibility: visible; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: transparent\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; visibility: visible; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: transparent\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 14px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e｜\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 122, 170)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e｜\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 12px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e高市早苗的财政政策将会适得其反，这已基本成为国际共识。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e这样就出现了一个尴尬的局面，日本央行的货币政策本来是要给通胀降温，但效果却被高市早苗力推的财政政策给大大“抵消”了。高市早苗饮鸩止渴的行为虽然兑现了其竞选时的承诺，但是却把日本的通胀问题推向了更加不可控的境地。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; visibility: visible; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 17px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: transparent\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e高市早苗一系列言行背后的逻辑链条，已经非常清晰了：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e第一，国内经济结构性问题解决不了，增长停滞。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e第二，推出大规模财政刺激，结果反而吓坏了债市，推高了风险。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(171, 25, 66)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e第三，从不同出发点推出的政策相互打架，让亟待解决的问题悬而未决。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 1em; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e高市早苗等右翼政客的嘴硬和日本经济的脆弱形成鲜明对比，让他们的丑态更加无处遁形。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv powered-by=\"ex-editor\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.rich_media_content{--news-tabel-th-night-color: #444444;--news-font-day-color: #333;--news-font-night-color: #d9d9d9;--news-bottom-distance: 22px}.rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}.rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-day-color);font-size:18px}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]):not(.qn-editor-copy){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{font-size:18px}.rich_media_content p[data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]{margin-bottom:11px}.rich_media_content\u003ediv:not(.qnt-video),.rich_media_content\u003esection{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content hr{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content .link_list{margin:0;margin-top:20px;min-height:0!important}.rich_media_content blockquote{background:#f9f9f9;border-left:6px solid #ccc;margin:1.5em 10px;padding:.5em 10px}.rich_media_content blockquote p{margin-bottom:0!important}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}}.rich_media_content ol[data-ex-list]{--ol-start: 1;--ol-list-style-type: decimal;list-style-type:none;counter-reset:olCounter calc(var(--ol-start,1) - 1);position:relative}.rich_media_content ol[data-ex-list]\u003eli\u003e:first-child::before{content:counter(olCounter,var(--ol-list-style-type)) '. 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